Want to hear some heresy from someone who's once been considered a"cheerleader for technology?"
Let's talk games and related content for cellphones.
It just ain't happening and I don't see much of change in that for some time to come. There was a time when i felt differently, back in the last century. I honestly thought there would be a big market for cell phone games in the US around 2005. And so did a lot of market analysts i talked to as well as entrepreneurs who were vying for spots at the Demo conferences i produced.
but know what? it was a zero sum market and while I freely acknowledge that there are carriers like DoCoMo that have helped fuel cell phone games in Japan, and a handful of companies in Europe are varving out spare mrevenue in this space,last time i checked, the US wasn't Japan, England, Finland or France. In looking over my qualification notes for the last two Demo shows I produced before I had that unfortunate "brain accident" ( again, such an ugly phrase) right before I was to open Demo I spotted a buch of cell phone game companies that were vying for spots on the shows. I think i picked one.
I'm convinced today that this segment is a waste of time and money. The game that's played here is one of extrapolation. Startups look at the number of subscribers who play games on their cell phones in countries like Japan, turn that number into a fraction, and then apply that fraction to total numebr of cell phone users in the US. Then, voila! an instant market number that looks pretty compelling.
Well guess what? the US cell phone market is still pretty anomalous. It's not like Japan or any other country, and there are still areas of our country where cell phone coverage isn't ubiquitous. Furtheremore, the US uses numerous standards for its networks and our carriers are more interested in using their networks for voice than they are for integrated voice and data. And, parents keep an eagle on their kid's' cell phone bills, so anything that adds to that bill is not perceived as a good thing by the cell phone subsriber (as opposed to the cell phone user).
A lot od people I respect are trying to create a market for cell phone games in the US. And companies like MForm and Digital Chocolate are betting their lives on it. but that doesn't mean it's going to happen here soon. it could take off, but before it does a lot of gears have to synch up in order for the engine to gain traction. And right now, the engine driving the gears in this drivetrain flat out lacks the requisite torque for a real market opportunity.
I'm going to restate something iIve said elsewhere in this blog over the last 90 days. Extrapolation of an imaginary market is not a generally accepted acounting practice. And right now that represents Zero dollars in a zero dollar market.
Maybe something could change this, say a hugely popular version of cell phone Soduku. But hell, it would be my luck that the version that comes out is based on astromechanics and my condition after the brain accident has taken the enjoyment I use to get from Tetris.
Well, i at least have my gardens and the weather down in San Diego is so warm that i expect an early return of the tuna schools and a record catch this year. Rather than wait for cell phone games to catch on, i think i'll build two new tuna rods from scratch. What the hell, I'd really rather fish anyway
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