ForbesOnTech

Explosion of Startups Has Ended--- Technology's Cambrian Age Ended-- Investor Duncan Davidson

the end of funding in the Cambrian Age of Technology

Writing in online pub Medium, venture capitalist Duncan Davidson posits that the era of investing in every little thing may be over. I believe he's spot on.

Davidson left some wiggle room in his piece for VR and IoT funding. although he's far from bullish on either of those two technology categories.

Disclosure,i've written articles on Duncan Davidson's startups and selected at least one of his companies for the former technology launch event, Demo. I am not now and have never been an investor in any of his venture funds.

For Virtual Reality to Break Out of Fantasy Land, It's Going to Need a Catalyst Like Desktop Publishing

For the last 10 months I’ve been looking at the Fantasy land category of virtual/ augmented reality and numerous proposed hybrids. I’ve participated in couple of way cool technology demonstrations and then gone out for coffee and ran the numbers  it’s going to take for me to buy an “E” ticket on technology’s next big ride.

Initially, I think any technology that will take three grand in current dollars to acquire is like a walk through a mine field wearing a blind fold. But there are other equally important issues I’ve not seen addressed. High up on this list is the fundamental issue of how will VR/AR and hybrids be marketed and where will the marketing professionals needed for this come from?

It’s easy to imagine numerous headsets making their way to various technology share and tell events where event producers motor on about how great the technology is without ever really positioning it in a fast growing category, Claiming this or that headset Is better because it’s not encumbered by hardware-bound firewalls, or because it’s a great platform for whatever game is momentarily hip adds very little to a critical look at an new hardware technology. My bet is that technology’s front men and "analysts" will do exactly that.

So what’s needed to catapult VR/AR and hy7brid technologies right off the starting line?

For the answer to that question you need not dial the Way Back machine any farther than the mid 1980s. The model then was the Apple Macintosh which initially wasn’t found in many corporate settings other than General Electric in Connecticut and a handful of talent representative firms on the west coast. Although the Mac popularized th graphics interface, the first models, (the 128K and 512K Macs and the Mac Plus lacked a compelling purchase motivation

The super charger and fuel the pushed the Macintosh to mass acceptance were the Apple LaserWriter and Aldus PageMaker, which combined gave Apple the keys to a brand new market that was the key to a dynamic new corporate market; desktop publishing.

Desktop publishing made the Macintosh, the Apple LaserWriter and Aldus PageMaker virtual gold mines. It was the reason corporations and small businesses both Apple products.

SO, if virtual/augmented reality is to take off the technologies are going to need the 21^st century analog of desktop publishing. I absolutely do not believe the technologies will be still born.

In fact, were I decades younger, I’d be back in college trying to refine and bring to market technologies that let me create and assemble content for VR.

But to travel back to that point I may have had to put on cammies again, and go camping with 125 of my closest packaged meals eating buddies.  But I never want to be a lance corporeal ever again. However I’m confident there are developers working on hybrid reality composition software right now.

And when it arrives, it could well be the Desktop Publishing kick start virtual and augmented reality need to kick off the next wave of computing. Hang on, it’s coming. –Jim Forbes on 29 August 2016.

Lenovo Joins Google's Project Tango, Are Lenovo Made Lexus Phones and Tablets in the works?

An announcement in June by Lenovo that it would support and was working with Google on its Project Tango technology may turn out to be a watershed moment for both companies.

Google’s project Tango is still under development but is expected to be used in Smart phones, tablets and other intelligent devices to locate themselves within a space
( "Spatial Computinmg" Tango is non GPS, and uses machine vision to identify and delineate boundaries.

The partnership between the two companies was announced earlier this year at a consumer electronics trade show in Las Vegas.

Lenovo’s has announced it would use Google Project Tango Spatial learning technology on a forthcoming smart phone called the Phab 2, an over-sized phone Lenovo expects to deliver later this summer.

 

Project Tango technology technologies running on phones ore tablets that dive VR displays could  reduce potential  risks of VR helmeted warriors slaying imaginary gorgons and colliding with walls or other fixtures.

Lenovo’s implementation of machine vision on Android mart phones could also give the PC maker the inside tract to getting contracts to be the next manufacturer of Google Nexus house branded smart phones and tablets.

Lenovo has yet to grab much market share for US smart phones, although  its phones are commonly used in Asia where inexpensive unlocked versions of their phones have garnered reputations for high definition displays, durability long battery life and other features.—Jim Forbes on 22 June 2016.

Microaoft Nils VR "D'Oh" Moment-- Business Over Entertainmnt Apps.

Anyone tracking emerging virtual/augmented reality technologies last week may have seen this category’s first real Simpsons “D’Oh“ moment when a senior Microsoft HoloLens marketing maven admitted that in the rush to push sexy entertainment titles and other content opportunities the world’s most well-known PC software supplier may have been initially blinded to the value of the commercial market for VR software.

Microsoft’s observation points out one of the most glaring errors in the VR market: although entertainment software and content libraries may be sexy, they don’t pay the bills like commercial software does.

There is and has always been a bifurcation in the design philosophies that shape entertainment and commercial software. The former most often taxes the capabilities of hardware, whereas the latter is designed to run on industry standard hardware configurations.

Since the advent of Window 3.1, Microsoft has pushed the boundaries of existing hardware, going so far at one point to introduce and support a hardware accelerator card that improved the performance of 8086-based desktops.

There are two other companies whose past strategies can be used to examine how to launch new technologies such as virtual reality. The most important of these is Apple Computer, which pundits believe is still a long way away from a VR announcement. The other company is Sony which is using its PlayStation platform and a new headset to leap into VR/AR.

Both companies have been able to separate past and current products through the use of intensely loyal brand advocates.

My major criticisms of VR and AR is this: its advocates aren’t getting down in the weeds and talking about the increased costs of accessing and implementing  the technologies, and the actual market for VR and AR content could be adversely effected by the cost of hardware.

It’s for these reasons I think we’re about to see hardware makers announce, launch and actively market hardware aimed specifically at VR and AR; and headset makers will be forced to bundle content to gain traction. Of the two technologies, VR may have the lowest entry price and could see the first major wins with commercial software running in real estate “viewing centers” where prospective home buyers can use VR to “walk through” multiple properties.

Although there’s no shortage of commercial and educational applications where VR will be in wide spread use, there is a catch in the recipe for success. The catch : there may be more opportunity than there is specialized talent needed to edit and code new content.

I never ever thought I’d write this but now may be the perfect time to be a film school or animation student. Oh Dear! –Jim Forbes 9 March, 2016.

Virtual Reality, Round Em Up and Evangelize 'Em Now!

 

The coming stampede towards virtual and augmented reality applications will be a greater rush than the previous tectonic shift from character-based to graphics based applications. But unlike that earlier shift which mixed innovation and remediation, the move to VR is going to force content providers to look far and wide for new talent, including recent graduates of learn by doing film schools nationwide.

It would be easy to look back at the computer games market as an isolated, similar model. But that doesn’t scale here.

There’s likely to be as much demand for VR and AR educational and training applications as there are entertainment apps. But the economics of those two segments eclipse entertainment content, plus therer is an implied refresher revenue stream that’s absent in the entertainment model. And smart investors are much more likely to put their money into companies and technologies that play in a large markets.

But where will the talent needed to develop applications and content come from?

The answer is obvious: film schools nationwide plus lower level educational institutions that already teach the basics need to produce VR and AR content. Obviously students who understand the mechanics of developing stories and the basics of filmmaking are likely to be at the breaking curl of the first wave of professionals who will be hired to develop VR and AR content.

PBS and cable television stations that produce original content such as WGBH, KCET, KPBS and KTEH, Nat Geo TV, and the Discovery networks are also potential reservoirs VR and AR talent.

I’ve lived through enough revolutions to understand that new technology often needs pushing and that corporate product evangelists can supply that force.  Apple’s original Mac marketing manager, Mike Murray, gets kudos for pushing hardware into the hands of developers in an effort to foster innovative applications for the Macs graphical interface.

 I sincerely hope that companies like Facebook Samsung, HTC, and most of all Microsoft, seed not only developers but also four year universities and community colleges. There’s a lot coming and I can’t wait to see what’s on the horizon.—Jim Forbes on 13 March, 2016

Yes HTC's Orders for More Than 15,000 VIVE Virtual Reality Headsets May be a Harbinger, But There's More to Come.

 

Chinese personal electronics maker HTC this week began taking orders for its $799 Vive virtual Reality headset, booking orders for more than 15,000 units in less than 10 minutes.

HTC’s VIVE’s orders brought in more than $11 million in revenue, according to published reports.

The massive rush to buy the $699 HTC virtual reality headset in being interpreted by some of VR’s proponents as solid proof that Virtual Reality is the next big thing,

What’s missing so far are reports and estimates of who is buying the new technology. In previous technological gold rushes, in addition to early adopters many first purchasers have been to hardware and software developers plus technical marketing and other specialists performing competitive analyses.

More VR systems will appear before the end of this summer, including Oculus Rift’s (Facebook) first product and perhaps Avegant’s Glyph personal theater. Further down the road Google is expected to introduce its second VR/personal theater product, which according to published reports that have appeared over the last several weeks, is now under development.

Microsoft is also in the mix at the high-end with its $3,000 HoloLens, which is expected to begin shipping at the end of March.

AS s products begin to appear, acquisition and system hardware overhead could become issues. Secondarily, standalone systems could become more popular than headsets and other display technologies that require a tethered cable between a headset and hardware.

I believe  virtual and augmented reality devices will ignite a Gold Rush in wearable computing, but I’ve lived through enough technological revolutions to know there will be big losers and winners in the race to easily mined riches. Like the California Gold Rush in the mid-19^th century, some of the real fortunes will be made by technology companies that mine the miners. And from that category I believe we’ll see huge advances in Interface, usability, gesture control and other technologies. I’m not going to be among the first purchasers of any high end VR system. I have a kid headed back to college. But eventual I’ll buy a system, and when I do, I’m hoping for immersive historical content. That will be me, huddled in my fluffy jacket in a corner of my office looking at an inside view of the Donnor Party as I snack on some Barbecue ribs in North San Diego County.—Jim Forbes on 2 March, 2016

 

 

 

VR and Girdling Thy Loins for Battling With Entertainment Content Gate Keepers

 

Based on things I’ve written recently, it would be easy to think i’m dismissive of virtual reality in general. It would also be incorrect.

Immersive technology can be transformative, but the rush to embrace VR and AR shouldn’t be made blindly.

But that’s what’s happening throughout technology as the press races to try and get lengths ahead of the curve.

On paper the $500 million acquisition of Oculus Rift by Facebook is being used as a harbinger of all things VR and AR to come.

Expectations for this system are way out of line with the reality of today’s markets.

To begin with, its price and computing overhead— a significant adder-- to gain access to or use the technology is way out of line with all but a few marketing models

Secondarily, I’m concerned by the practicality of any VR headset requiring a cord back to a host computer. The market trend is to cut, not introduce, more cords. To eliminate cords, issues with  power needed to project and display VR images have to be addressed. Some of the new products under development are being designed to be used cordless.

There are also potential product liability issues in  this nascent market: Could the projection system used in headsets damage  a young person’s vision ? The same holds true for onboard headset audio. Some Audio equipment manufacturers already warn of auditory damage caused by exposure to loud music.

I suspect auditory and ocular warnings could be a part of the emerging VR landscape.

It’s not hard to imagine the negative effects of black box warnings on the sales of VR systems.

In the last week, unsourced stories have appeared claiming  Google was workingon and would launch a VR headset. If it’s true, Google’s multi product family – which would begin with Cardboard as its “get acquainted” technology and scale up, could become the norm for this new technology.

In such a world it’s difficult for me to imagine a $400 jacked up headset surviving in open market competition, and it doesn’t matter what company name or logo is on the device.

Looking out at the future of virtual and augmented reality the big wins could  go to infrastructure software suppliers that let movie and other studios quickly adapt existing content for a new media outlets.

But there’s a big hairy fly in that ointment too: Almost no technology companies have any real experience dealing with the professionals (i.e. Directors, screen writers, executive producers and studio execs) who control entertainment industry intellectual property

Dealing with a venture capitalist is a walk in the park when compared to dealing with hypersensitive and super controlling entertainment execs who license, movie content, story lines, screen presentation and other Intellectual property elements in the entertainment industry.

“Take your marks, speed, sound, action!” a new revolution is about to begin. --jim Forbes on 17 February, 2016.

An Observation on VR for Investors. VR's Most interesting Early Adopters are our Warfighters Taking Google Carboard on Deployments

Virtual Reality has become an important part of the personal kit of our military as thy load out their personal possessions prior to forward deployment in conflict zones.

As a veteran who deployed to a combat zone a long time ago, it’s hard not to imagine the written or memorized matrix of personal items that go overseas with ground troops:

                Extra tooth brushes and rags for cleaning your assigned weapon? Check.

                Nonstandard gun lube and rifle cleaning supplies? Check

                Laptop computer loaded with Skype? Check.

                Ear buds? Check.

                Extra cans of your favorite dip or snuff (just in case the nearest PX doesn’t have it)? Check

                Large screen GSM cell phone? Check.

                32 GB micro SD cards loaded with entertainment content? Check.

                Google cardboard head set dissembled into its flat components? Check.

                VR shooter  games? Check?

                Leather Goddesses of Phobos on an extra SD card? Check.

                Extra $10, $20 or $5 dollar bills (poker money) hidden securely in your ditty bag? Check.

                All of this is to make the point that basic VR doesn’t need to be costly. And for the first time ever, enlisted war fighters are among the first group of users to adopt new computer technology. The force that’s driving adoption is Google $25 Cardboard headset and free or inexpensive VR software that can be down loaded from Google’s PlayStore.

               The example above is being overlooked by most VR hardware suppliers and touts who think people will stampede to buy multi-hundred dollar VR headsets. For VR to take off it has to be inexpensive enough to conform to a wide scale, mass market model. Once a consumer becomes a true believer, they're more likely to become a buyer of  multi hundred headsets, or computers configured for VR.

              there are other, equally important infrastructure plays that need to appear in VR. Most importantly is software that lets any studio building VR titles, to adapt existing content for VR, has to appear.

                It’s not Sandhill venture capitalists looking for a niche that will drive this. It’s Hollywood movie, music and animation studios who will make it happen. You don’t need to be an Oscar winner to understand that the studios can lock up competitive technologies now by investing in startups that play to the VR content development market.

                There is a VR example of being too early to market. That demographic market is Japan, where Sony launched its VR headset more than two years ago.  To date, the headset has not been widely adopted, although it is beloved by up-market gaming enthusiasts.         

                In VR there are some critical questions that still need to be answered:

                Who is the target market for these systems?

                How sensitive is the target market to pricing, and what software needs to be bundled with VR headsets to push them into the mainstream?

                And finally what kind of baseline performance will be required in hardware that powers VR headsets?

                If basic questions such as these are not answered, in a collapsing bubble investment environment, some players in the VR space risk suffering the fate of Momenta Inc in the earliest days of pen computing, or any of the legions of digital photo frame and USB radio startups.

                I’m hopeful VR does take off. You can bet that the next smartphone I buy will be a model that’s positioned for VR. The promised technology was important enough today that it was a factor in my buying a top of the product line  new Microsoft Surface Book  two months ago.

                And so, Mike Edelhart and Chris Shipley, we're once again on he barricades of another revolution.

                   But for now, Google is in the driver’s seats and some of it strongest supporters are young enlisted guys with Google cardboard headsets on their noggins, playing games and VR content in tents in and neart conflict zones. This post is for technically savvy terminal lance corporals preparing kits prior to deployment. I was once a /x\ too.—jim forbes, east of Camp Pendleton, CA on February 2,2016.